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Narendra Modi invoked “reform” more than two dozen times in his independence day speech at Delhi’s Red Fort earlier this month. But for all the pledges, the Modi Indians heard was not the reformer they once knew.
本月早些时候，纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)在德里红堡(Red Fort)举行的独立日演讲中，20多次提到“改革”。但尽管莫迪做出了种种承诺，印度人听到的已不是他们曾经认识的改革者。
The Indian leader typically deploys the address to outline his grand visions for the world’s most populous country. Last year he vowed to make India a developed economy by 2047. This year’s speech, with ample references to Viksit Bharat (“Developed India”) was a record 98 minutes long.
这位印度领导人通常会在演讲中概述他对这个世界上人口最多国家的宏伟愿景。去年，他誓言到2047年使印度成为发达经济体。今年的讲话大量提到了“发达印度”(Viksit Bharat)，时长达到创纪录的98分钟。
But Modi’s Bharatiya Janata party lost its majority in June for the first time in a decade and is now having to consult allies, and sometimes retreat, on legislation. Recently it has made U-turns on bills that in the past it would have confidently pushed through parliament.
但莫迪的印度人民党(Bharatiya Janata party)在6月份失去了多数席位，这是10年来的第一次，现在不得不在立法上与盟友协商，有时还会让步。最近，它在一些法案上做出了180度大转弯，而在过去，它会自信地推动这些法案在议会获得通过。
So while he declares a commitment to “major reforms”, analysts say, Modi will have to work harder than before to prevail against a reinvigorated opposition led by Rahul Gandhi. His premiership, in its third term, is a diminished one.
因此，分析人士认为，尽管莫迪宣布将致力于“重大改革”，但要想在拉胡尔•甘地领导的重新崛起的反对党面前取得胜利，他必须付出比以往更多的努力。他的总理职位在第三个任期被削弱了。
More ominously perhaps for the powerful and popular prime minister, some leaders of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, the Hindu nationalist mass movement behind the BJP, made remarks that Indians interpreted as expressing impatience with Modi since the general election result was announced on June 4.
对于这位强大而受欢迎的总理来说，也许更不祥的是，印度人民党背后的印度民族主义群众运动，“国民志愿服务团”(Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh)的一些领导人发表了一些言论，印度人认为这些言论表达了自6月4日大选结果公布以来对莫迪的不耐烦。
“He had very big plans and the loss of 60 seats in parliament has put a lot of that on hold,” says Pramit Pal Chaudhuri, Eurasia Group’s south Asia practice head. “He has to contend with partners, with the RSS, and just generally an opposition that is more energised.”
欧亚集团(Eurasia Group)南亚业务主管普拉米特•帕尔•乔杜里(Pramit Pal Chaudhuri)表示：“他有非常宏伟的计划，但失去议会60个席位让很多计划搁浅。他必须与合作伙伴、国民志愿服务团以及总体上更有活力的反对派竞争。”
Modi’s leftwing critics are delighted to see a leader they describe as an authoritarian strongman weakened.
莫迪的左翼批评者很高兴看到这位他们称之为威权强人的领导人被削弱。
Business leaders and analysts, meanwhile, are puzzling over what the changed electoral arithmetic will mean for a pro-big business leader who had an ambitious third-term agenda for the world’s fifth-biggest economy.
与此同时，商界领袖和分析人士困惑的是，选举结果的改变对这位亲大企业的领导人意味着什么，他曾为这个世界第五大经济体制定了雄心勃勃的第三个任期议程。
In the run-up to the election, Modi instructed his ministries to come up with 100-day action plans to push through the BJP’s legislative and administrative programme in its first three months. These included proposals to create “super-ministries” for areas such as technology, with the aim of streamlining the government’s work.
大选前夕，莫迪指示各部委制定百日行动计划，以便在头三个月内推动人民党的立法和行政计划。其中包括为技术等领域设立“超级部委”，目的是精简政府工作。
Officials no longer speak about a 100-day agenda. And following the BJP’s shock loss of its majority, he was compelled to dole out some government posts to junior coalition partners, making the plan for mega-ministries unworkable.
官员们不再谈论百日议程。在印度人民党令人震惊地失去多数席位后，他不得不将一些政府职位分配给联盟中的小伙伴，这使得设立超级部委的计划无法实施。
The Modi government recently sent back for further revision a broadcasting bill that would have brought YouTubers and other content creators under tighter regulatory control, following a backlash from civil society groups and questions from business.
莫迪政府最近将一项广播法案发回进一步修订，该法案本应将YouTube博主和其他内容创作者置于更严格的监管之下，但却遭到了民间团体的反弹和商界的质疑。
After an outcry from middle-class Indians, his government also scrapped plans for an overhaul of the long-term capital gains tax outlined in last month’s budget. A scheme to allow “lateral” entry to the civil service for non-bureaucrats was sunk by the Gandhi-led opposition, who questioned why it did not include “reservations” for lower-caste Indians. The plan was even criticised by some Modi allies.
在印度中产阶级的强烈抗议下，他的政府还取消了上月预算中提出的对长期资本利得税进行全面改革的计划。一项允许非官僚人员“横向”进入公务员制度的计划被甘地领导的反对派否决，他们质疑为什么不包括为低种姓印度人的“保留职位”。该计划甚至遭到了莫迪的一些盟友的批评。
Both measures arguably would have been good for India’s finances and the quality of its governance, with lateral entry allowing more private sector technocrats to become involved in public administration.
可以说，这两项措施都有利于印度的财政和治理质量，横向进入允许更多私营部门的技术专家参与公共管理。
The business community has been hoping for forward movement on policies such as privatisation, land and labour market reform, and an overhaul of production-linked incentives — the multibillion-dollar subsidies India uses to lure investors in industries such as mobile phones and microchips.
商界一直希望在私有化、土地和劳动力市场改革等政策方面取得进展，并全面改革与生产挂钩的激励措施——印度用数十亿美元的补贴来吸引手机和微芯片等行业的投资者。
Analysts say that the Modi government’s forward momentum will depend in large part on the outcome of upcoming state elections — the biggest being in Maharashtra, one of India’s wealthiest and biggest states, expected in November.
分析人士认为，莫迪政府的前进势头将在很大程度上取决于即将举行的各邦选举的结果，其中最大的选举将于11月在印度最富裕和最大的邦之一马哈拉施特拉邦举行。
Even sooner, an upcoming by-election for 12 seats in the Rajya Sabha or upper house, scheduled for September 3, could provide either a small lift or loss to the BJP in the 245-seat upper house.
在此之前，即将于9月3日举行的联邦院(Rajya Sabha)12个席位的补选，可能会让人民党在245个席位的上院中获得小幅提升或损失。
Seasoned political observers point out that a weaker Modi governing in a coalition is no great matter. It simply makes him a more typical Indian leader.
经验丰富的政治观察人士指出，莫迪在联合政府中被削弱并不是什么大事。这只是让他成为一个更典型的印度领导人。
P.V. Narasimha Rao, the Indian National Congress party prime minister elected in 1991, credited with India’s “big bang” economic reforms, presided over a minority government. Even Modi, when the BJP enjoyed a majority, was unable to have his way on ambitious reforms to the crucial farming sector.
1991年当选的印度国民大会党总理P.V.纳拉辛哈•拉奥(P.V. Narasimha Rao)领导了一个少数党政府，他被誉为印度“大爆炸”经济改革的功人。即使是莫迪，当人民党获得多数席位时，也无法对关键的农业部门进行雄心勃勃的改革。
“As far as economic policy is concerned, it doesn’t matter which government is in power,” says Shumita Deveshwar, chief India economist with GlobalData.TSLombard. “India with its very vibrant democracy and the multiple stakeholders involved means that the pace of reforms will always be very incremental.”
GlobalData.TSLombard首席印度经济学家Shumita Deveshwar表示：“就经济政策而言，哪届政府执政并不重要。印度拥有非常活跃的民主制度，而且涉及多个利益相关者，这意味着改革的步伐将永远是非常渐进的。”