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The writer is author of ‘Command’ and the Substack ‘Comment is Freed’
作者是《Command》和 Substack 平台上《Comment is Freed》专栏的作者
On Wednesday, US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed to establish a negotiating process to end the Russo-Ukrainian war. Volodymyr Zelenskyy, president of Ukraine, the aggrieved party in the war, was not on the call but Trump rang him afterwards to tell him about what had been agreed, and presumably the role he might be allowed to play. Zelenskyy, who has worked very hard since well before last November’s US election to stay close to Trump, declared himself satisfied with the call.
周三，美国总统唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔•普京(Vladimir Putin)同意建立一个谈判进程，以结束俄乌战争。乌克兰总统弗拉基米尔•泽连斯基(Volodymyr Zelenskyy)作为战争中的受害方没有参与通话，但特朗普随后给他打了电话，告知他已达成的协议，以及他可能被允许扮演的角色。泽连斯基自去年11月美国大选前就一直努力与特朗普保持密切关系，他表示对这次通话感到满意。
This is despite comments from US officials dismissing two core features of Ukraine’s demands: the return of all territory seized illegally by Russia and security guarantees backed by the US, preferably through Nato. Trump administration officials have been consistent in pointing to Ukraine’s inability to liberate all its lost territory through military means. Meanwhile, the new American defence secretary, Pete Hegseth, told his Nato counterparts that the US no longer saw European security as its main priority. He added that while Ukraine could expect its own security guarantees, these would be provided by Europeans.
尽管美国官员否定了乌克兰要求的两个核心特征：归还所有被俄罗斯非法夺取的领土，以及由美国（最好是通过北约）支持的安全保障。特朗普政府官员一直指出乌克兰无法通过军事手段解放所有失去的领土。同时，新任美国国防部长皮特•海格塞斯(Pete Hegseth)告诉他的北约同行，美国不再将欧洲安全视为主要优先事项。他补充说，虽然乌克兰可以期待自己的安全保障，但这些保障将由欧洲人提供。
As ceasefire lines tend to get frozen, this prospect is viewed apprehensively in Kyiv, on account of the towns and people lost to Russian occupation. Yet while Trump’s readiness to bring Putin in from the cold and offer him pre-emptive concessions has led to widespread dismay among Ukraine’s supporters, negotiations have yet to begin and we are far from an actual deal.
由于停火线往往会被冻结，基辅对这一前景感到担忧，因为有城镇和人民被俄罗斯占领。然而，尽管特朗普准备将普京从冷遇中拉回，并向他提供先发制人的让步，这在乌克兰的支持者中引起了广泛的不安，但谈判尚未开始，我们距离达成实际协议还很遥远。
Many in Ukraine would welcome a ceasefire. The country is tired and bruised from almost three years of war and could use a respite to build up its armed forces and revive its economy. A ceasefire does not require, as the Russians expect, that it abandon hopes of recovering its lost territory forever. Nor have the Americans suggested that Ukraine should accede to the rest of Moscow’s demands — that it concede yet more territory to Russia, disarm its forces and change its regime and constitution.
乌克兰的许多人会欢迎停火。这个国家因近三年的战争而疲惫不堪，伤痕累累，需要一个喘息的机会来重建其武装力量并振兴经济。停火并不要求像俄罗斯人所期望的那样，乌克兰永远放弃收复失地的希望。美国人也没有建议乌克兰应该同意莫斯科的其他要求——即向俄罗斯让出更多领土，解除武装，并改变其政权和宪法。
Putin is no doubt delighted to be treated with respect by Trump. But without these other demands being met, he will not have achieved his war aims. He does not agree with American ideas for an early ceasefire largely based on the current line of contact between the two sets of forces, to be followed by negotiations on a longer-term peace settlement. To be sure, this would allow him to hold a large chunk of Ukrainian land, but there would also be the prospect of Ukraine reconstituting its forces with western support to return to the fight later. Russia would need to subsidise and police occupied territory, much of which has been ruined by a series of destructive battles, and defend a long border.
普京无疑对特朗普给予的尊重感到高兴。但如果其他要求没有得到满足，他将无法实现他的战争目标。他不同意美国提出的早期停火建议，该建议主要基于当前两军接触线，随后进行长期和平谈判。虽然这将使他占据乌克兰的大块土地，但乌克兰也可能在西方支持下重组部队，日后重返战斗。俄罗斯将需要补贴和管理被占领的领土，其中大部分已被破坏性战斗摧毁，并需防御漫长的边界。
That is why Putin has demanded that a peace settlement that allows him to achieve his war aims of the subjugation of Ukraine be agreed prior to any ceasefire. His starting position is even more ambitious, as confirmed in his call with Trump. He wants to deal with what he considers the “root causes” of the situation — the development of a European security order unfavourable to Russia since the end of the cold war.
这就是为什么普京要求在任何停火之前达成一项和平协议，以实现他征服乌克兰的战争目标。他的起始立场甚至更具野心，这在他与特朗普的通话中得到了证实。他希望解决他认为的局势“根本原因”——自冷战结束以来对俄罗斯不利的欧洲安全秩序的发展。
There is no reason to suppose that Trump is interested in any of this. Hegseth’s comments suggest that, as far as the administration is concerned, the Russians should talk to Europeans about the future of Europe. And while Nato may be falling down the list of US priorities, it means that reversing the consequences of Nato enlargement is also a low priority. As Trump has stressed the importance of an early end to the fighting, he is not going to accept that a final settlement must be agreed before a ceasefire can come into effect. Negotiations to deal with all the outstanding issues could take many months. And, with the memories still fresh of what abandoning Afghanistan in August 2021 did to Joe Biden’s ratings, there are limits to how far Trump can push Kyiv into the loss of more sovereignty and territory, even if he wished to. His officials have said that he does not.
没有理由认为特朗普对这些事情感兴趣。海格塞斯的评论表明，就政府而言，俄罗斯人应该与欧洲人讨论欧洲的未来。虽然北约可能在美国的优先事项清单上排名下降，但这也意味着逆转北约扩张的后果是一个低优先级。由于特朗普强调尽早结束战斗的重要性，他不会接受必须在停火生效前达成最终协议。处理所有悬而未决问题的谈判可能需要数月时间。而且，考虑到2021年8月放弃阿富汗对乔•拜登(Joe Biden)支持率的影响仍然记忆犹新，即使特朗普愿意，他也无法将基辅推向更多主权和领土损失。他的官员们表示，他并不愿意这样做。
Most awkward for Putin is that his bargaining position is not that strong. Russia has enjoyed the military initiative since late 2023 and it has made incremental gains, but these have yet to reach the boundaries of the claimed territories and have come at an extraordinarily high cost. The campaign against critical infrastructure, intended to leave Ukraine shivering and in the dark through winter, has thus far failed.
对普京来说，最尴尬的是他的谈判地位并不强。自2023年底以来，俄罗斯一直掌握着军事主动权，并取得了一些渐进的进展，但这些进展尚未达到声称领土的边界，并且付出了极高的代价。针对关键基础设施的行动，旨在让乌克兰在冬季中瑟瑟发抖、陷入黑暗，但迄今为止未能成功。
And Ukraine has taken initiatives of its own. After six months it still holds a chunk of Kursk, which Zelenskyy has gamely offered to trade for the return of Ukrainian territory, and it now regularly attacks valuable targets inside Russia, including oil refineries. The Russian economy is starting to buckle under the strain, with official projections showing growth in decline while inflation remains high.
乌克兰也采取了自己的行动。六个月后，它仍然控制着库尔斯克的一部分，泽连斯基勇敢地提出用这部分交换乌克兰领土的归还。乌克兰现在定期攻击俄罗斯境内的重要目标，包括炼油厂。俄罗斯经济在压力下开始崩溃，官方预测显示经济增长在下降，而通货膨胀仍然很高。
So as the negotiating teams start to engage, Putin has to work out whether he can walk away from his maximalist demands. Perhaps he could agree to a ceasefire but only with a strict negotiating timetable for a final settlement and some early relief on sanctions; maybe he could concede Ukraine EU membership. But if Ukraine stays independent and armed, he will have failed. Should Putin end up being blamed for the failure of this big push for peace, he might find that even Trump is ready to step up support for Kyiv and impose more sanctions on Russia.
因此，当谈判团队开始接触时，普京必须考虑是否可以放弃他的最大化要求。也许他可以同意停火，但前提是要有严格的谈判时间表来达成最终协议，并在早期解除部分制裁；也许他可以让步，允许乌克兰加入欧盟。但如果乌克兰保持独立并武装，他将失败。如果普京最终被指责为这次和平大推动的失败者，他可能会发现即使是特朗普也准备加强对基辅的支持，并对俄罗斯施加更多制裁。