America’s dead heat Trump-Harris election | 2024年美国大选:特朗普与哈里斯的激烈角逐 - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
FT英语电台

America’s dead heat Trump-Harris election
2024年美国大选:特朗普与哈里斯的激烈角逐

In a country divided into mutually hostile camps, no easy resolution to the polarisation seems likely
在2024年美国大选的激烈竞争中,前总统唐纳德·特朗普与现任副总统卡马拉·哈里斯的对决反映了美国社会的两极分化。无论谁最终胜出,选举的结果都可能引发宪法危机,并进一步加剧国内的政治敌对。本文探讨了大选的四种可能结果及其对美国政治和社会的深远影响,揭示了选举背后隐藏的复杂局势与风险。
00:00

Do not bet a dollar on the US election. With such narrow odds, you would need to risk many for a tiny upside. You can wager a lot, however, on America being as riven after the election as before. Whether the victor is Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, the race’s closeness stems from deep US polarisation. A big majority of American voters would walk over hot coals before voting for the other candidate. Half the country will treat the winner as a fraud. 

The last time America had an election this tight was in 2000. Those were calmer days. The Florida recount was nevertheless ended by a controversial Supreme Court ruling. Picture how such a dispute would unfold in 2024. Instead of the “Brooks Brothers riots” — where besuited Republican men flew in to disrupt the Miami-Dade County recount — militias would gather at disputed precincts. Weaponisation of election-counting is now a feature of US life. 

Only one of the four outcomes on November 5 would be likely to yield old-fashioned US governance. That would be Harris winning the White House with Democrats keeping the Senate and retaking the House of Representatives. A Democratic sweep would allow the business of governing to resume and restrict Trump’s scope to contest his defeat. But this is the least likely scenario. The presidential and House races are both toss-ups. The Senate map is heavily skewed towards Republicans. 

The second is that Harris wins the presidency but Democrats lose the Senate. Even if Democrats regained the House, Republicans could block her appointees and bills in the upper chamber — and they would. Harris’s domestic agenda would be dead on arrival. Global instability would make foreign policy an unenticing alternative. A narrow Harris victory would also increase the risk of a constitutional crisis. Hundreds of Republican lawyers are working on challenges to a Harris victory. Last weekend Trump predicted that “radical left lunatics” would steal the election. They should be handled by the national guard and “if really necessary, by the military”, he said. Unlike in 2020, Trump has no control over either. But he will use whatever tool is available to overturn a Harris victory. 

The third is that Trump regains the White House while the parties swap control on Capitol Hill — Republicans regain the Senate; Democrats recapture the House. The 2024 electoral map makes that more likely than the reverse. Either way, Trump could push through much of his agenda. Divided government always works better for Republican presidents than Democrats. But one Democrat-controlled chamber could still act as a drag on Trump’s most radical plans. 

The last scenario is a Republican trifecta. This is about as unlikely as a Harris sweep. I would give each roughly one in five odds. A Maga stranglehold on Washington would bring America into uncharted waters. All three branches of government would be in Trump’s corner. He already has the 6-3 Supreme Court on his side. The court recently ruled that America’s president has criminal immunity from almost any “official” acts, including assassinating his opponents.

You do not need to believe that Trump would go to such lengths to see the ruling as a green light to do what he wants. Without judicial or legislative brakes on his actions, Trump would take it as a sweeping licence to go after his enemies. Mark Milley, who was chairman of the joint chiefs of staff under Trump, last week described him as “fascist to the core”. Milley is one of several ex-Trump officials whom the former president has branded a traitor. Trump’s Maga appointees would use the mandate to implement Project 2025 — the Heritage Foundation’s plan to turn the US into an illiberal democracy. 

The question is what, if anything, could bring the nation’s domestic cold war to an end. Most Americans would say that the only fix is for the other side to surrender. Trump should be thrown into jail; liberals must repent of their mental disorder; and so on. There can be no splitting of difference with evil. For Trump, defeat could mean eventual jail. To Democrats, a Trump sweep could end hopes of regaining power in a fair election. 

Since each party believes the worst of the other, they are playing for keeps, not just the next four years. It is hard to look at America’s numbers, or feel its mood, and envisage an easy end to its impasse. Other democracies experience big swings in party loyalty. Almost nothing in the US — whether assassination attempts, a switch in presidential nominee or awful debate performances — moves the dial. The 2024 race is a toss-up between mutually hostile Americas. 

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

Lex专栏:亚洲将遭遇“特朗普交易”的冲击

汽车行业保护主义抬头的定价过程才刚刚开始。

马斯克对特朗普的押注得到了回报

特斯拉和X的首席执行官将成为特朗普总统身边最具影响力的政治和商业顾问之一。

巴尼耶削减养老金的计划触动了法国人的神经

法国总理的这一省钱提案遭到反对,尽管人们呼吁加强代际公平。

英国学费上涨对学生和大学财务状况的影响

专家称,这些措施不足以解决高等教育经费问题或吸引来自贫困家庭的学生。

这次美国大选对美国企业意味着什么?

大选结果将对能源、汽车和制药等领域的企业产生重大影响。

德国的商业模式失败了吗?

德国三大主要产业同时陷入低迷,经济也停滞不前。政客们终于清醒过来了吗?
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×