US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever - FT中文网
登录×
电子邮件/用户名
密码
记住我
请输入邮箱和密码进行绑定操作:
请输入手机号码,通过短信验证(目前仅支持中国大陆地区的手机号):
请您阅读我们的用户注册协议隐私权保护政策,点击下方按钮即视为您接受。
FT商学院

US Treasuries: Fed cannot count on Asian investors forever

Rise of haven currency amid higher rates and a European war is casting a long shadow

King Dollar is back on its throne. The US Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against six other important currencies, is near its 20-year high. The rise of the haven currency amid higher rates, a European war and global shortages is casting a long shadow. 

For companies with revenues overseas, the headache is the hit to earnings. The impact on the $23tn US Treasury market is a real, though less obvious, snag. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar has gained more than 18 per cent since late September. The yen’s fall against the buck risks cutting Japanese demand for US government debt.

As the dollar rises, foreign investors have to pay more for currency hedges, which cuts into their returns. Although the yield on the 10-year US Treasury briefly hit 2.97 per cent this month, the yield in effect falls to just 1.32 per cent once you factor in yen-dollar hedging costs. These now stand at 1.65 percentage points, a two-year high.

Japanese institutions sold a hefty $74bn of Treasuries in March, according to data released last week. While the Asian country remains the largest foreign holder of US government bonds, its $1.23tn holding is at its lowest level since January 2020. 

The sell-off may have been exacerbated by Japanese money managers booking profits for the fiscal year, which ends in March. Even so, the fall is 2.5 times greater than the largest previous sale by Japanese investors in a single month, according to TD Securities.

China, the second-largest overseas holder of Treasuries, also reduced its holdings for the fourth consecutive month in March. Since November, it has sold more than $41bn of US government debt.

Sustained selling would be a problem for the Federal Reserve. The US central bank is counting on foreign investors to help absorb the increased supply of Treasuries that is coming on to the market as it ends its pandemic-era bond-buying programme. Fed boss Jay Powell will just have to hope that steeper yields and the dollar’s haven appeal will outweigh higher hedging costs.

版权声明:本文版权归FT中文网所有,未经允许任何单位或个人不得转载,复制或以任何其他方式使用本文全部或部分,侵权必究。

马斯克对特朗普的押注得到了回报

特斯拉和X的首席执行官将成为特朗普总统身边最具影响力的政治和商业顾问之一。

巴尼耶削减养老金的计划触动了法国人的神经

法国总理的这一省钱提案遭到反对,尽管人们呼吁加强代际公平。

英国学费上涨对学生和大学财务状况的影响

专家称,这些措施不足以解决高等教育经费问题或吸引来自贫困家庭的学生。

这次美国大选对美国企业意味着什么?

大选结果将对能源、汽车和制药等领域的企业产生重大影响。

德国的商业模式失败了吗?

德国三大主要产业同时陷入低迷,经济也停滞不前。政客们终于清醒过来了吗?

Lex专栏:马斯克利用美国大选出风头

这位亿万富翁的名字没有出现在选票上,但他已利用美国大选吸引了大家的注意力。
设置字号×
最小
较小
默认
较大
最大
分享×