The writer is chief economist at ING
本文作者是荷兰国际集团(ING)首席经济学家
Donald Trump’s resounding victory has upset conventional economists almost as much as American liberals. The Republican candidate’s pledge to implement trade tariffs and other protectionist measures has provoked a spate of dire economic prognostications. But much of the current doom-mongery doesn’t consider mitigating factors — and risks undermining the credibility of globalisation’s defenders.
唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的大胜给传统经济学家带来的沮丧与给美国自由派人士带来的沮丧不相上下。这名共和党当选总统实施关税和其他保护主义措施的承诺已经引发一连串严峻的经济预测。但当前很大一部分“末世论”并没有考虑缓和因素——而且可能会削弱全球化捍卫者的可信度。
These are difficult times for economic experts. Politicians hardly seem to take their advice seriously any more. Economists continue to warn about the dangers of deglobalisation in the form of higher prices and less GDP growth but electorates are rolling their eyes. Trump’s victory amplifies this trend.
对于经济专家而言，现在是艰难时期。政客们似乎基本不再严肃对待他们的意见。经济学家们继续警告去全球化的危险——价格上涨和国内生产总值(GDP)增长放缓——但选民们满不在乎。特朗普的胜利放大了这一趋势。